Macau 2025 GGR could top US$30bln govt forecast: Citi

Macau 2025 GGR could top US$30bln govt forecast: Citi

Blog Article

Citigroup thinks from 사는법 the outset, that Macau’s 2025 casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) could exceed the local government’s forecast made public this week, of MOP240 billion (US$29.9 billion).

The bank estimates 2025 GGR could be MOP242.5 billion, or 1.0 perccent higher than the official forecast, but says there could well be “upside” even to its figure.

Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said in a report, that 2025 GGR could be driven by “mid-single-digit” percentage growth in Macau visitor volume, an expanded rollout of “smart tables” across the city’s casinos, and the growth already seen this year, in the use of house-edge-boosting baccarat-table side bets.

If Citi’s 2025 GGR tally were realised, it would the bank noted, represent a circa 83 percent recovery rate relative to 2019, the immediate trading year prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. The institution thinks 2026 Macau casino GGR 다운 could reach MOP261.9 billion, or circa 90 percent of 2019-level.

The analysts stated that while “our fiscal year 2025 GGR forecast is similar to… the Macau government” figure, the authorities had a “track record of underestimating GGR, which implies upside risks to our forecast.”

The 2025 visitor tally could be partly boosted by the 10 additional cities on the Chinese mainland added this year to its Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) exit visa system for indepndent trips to Macau or Hong Kong.

“We expect the usual organic growth [in tourism] and the impact from the 10 new IVS cities to translate into a mid-single-digit growth in tourist arrivals… to circa 35.7 million in fiscal year 2025,” the Citi analysts stated, noting that should also increase the pool of customers for Macau casinos.

A growth in suite accommodation at Macau casino resorts – though likely to mean fewer hotel keys market-wide – could boost the city’s 2025 GGR, in particular for the premium mass segment, the institution suggested.

It flagged fresh suite supply in 2025 at 오버워치 Sands China Ltd’s Londoner Grand (1,500 units), Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd’s Capella (100 units), and MGM China Holdings Ltd’s two Macau properties (70 units).

The Citi analysts stated: “’Bigger hotel rooms get bigger players’ has been a proven model in Macau. If higher-wagering players can stay overnight, then… number of hands played during their stays should increase.”

Smart tables with elements such as radio frequency identification (RFID) technology, would help gaming operators calculate players’ “real value” to the house.

“Simply put, the higher the player’s tendency of placing a [long-odds] side bet, the higher the player’s theoretical [loss]… If these higher-value players are appropriately comped, they will be less likely to switch to other casino,” said Citi, referring to provision of marketing incentives to players.

The growing popularity of baccarat side bets among Macau players could also lead to 스타크래프트 higher hold rate for the casino operators, and higher GGR, the analysts noted. Small 6/Big 6 games and the Lucky 7 and Super Lucky 7 have seen growth in casino-floor rollout this year.

Baccarat side bets “are becoming more popular amongst players, based on what we observed when we conducted our [monthly premium mass] table surveys,” stated the analysts.

For 2025, Citi expects Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment to remain as GGR share leaders among the city’s six operators, with Sands on 25.4 percent; Galaxy Entertainment on 19.2 스타크래프트 percent; MGM China on 15.3 percent; Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd on 14.3 percent; SJM Holdings Ltd on 13.1 percent; and Wynn Macau Ltd at 12.7 percent.

It thinks 2024 industry earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) will reach nearly US$8.03 billion, and grow by circa 13 percent year-on-year to US$9.05 billion in 2025 – the latter tally would represent a circa 94 percent recovery relative to 2019.

The banking institution has also mentioned the likelihood of the Macau gaming sector becoming more widely a “dividend-paying” industry in the coming year.

“Despite a likely market-share decline, MGM China is expected to generate sufficient free cash flow to pay a dividend in fiscal year 2025 that implies a circa 7 percent yield,” said the analysts.

“Galaxy, which recently raised its payout ratio to 50 percent, has a decent dividend yield of circa 4 percent. Sands China and Melco Resorts could also resume dividends in fiscal year 2025,” Citi 베팅 suggested.